Episode 466: TDFs, Managed Futures, Complex Trading Strategies, STRIPS And TIPS
Thursday, November 20, 2025 | 34 minutes
Show Notes
In this episode we answer emails from Phil and Chris. We discuss moving from target date funds to low-cost index funds, why equity diversification needs a value tilt, how managed futures replication mimics an index fund in that asset class, options collars versus simply holding less equity, momentum models trade-offs and regime risk, long Treasuries compared with STRIPS for rate sensitivity, why TIPS don’t hedge portfolio-level inflation and practical ways to fight portfolio-level inflation with value-tilted stocks and alternatives.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Many Happy Returns Podcast Featuring Tyler: How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Drawdowns Chart: Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts
DMBF Video Re Dispersion of Recent Returns: iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | October 2025
Bernstein TIPS Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.")
Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Ever feel like your “set it and forget it” fund is quietly holding you back? We open the hood on target date funds and show how shifting to clear, low-cost index building blocks can recover real performance over the long haul. From there, we get practical about designing portfolios that don’t just look diversified—they behave differently when markets sour. Think value tilts to counter mega-cap concentration, long-duration Treasuries for recession defense, and managed futures for trend-driven shock absorption.
We also tackle the allure of complexity. Options collars can cap losses, but they cap gains too—and often mimic what you’d get by simply holding less equity and more diversifiers. Momentum strategies like GEM carry academic support, yet every rule set faces regime risk and behavioral hurdles. Rather than chasing perfect timing, we focus on roles: which assets hedge recessions, which fight inflation, and which compound steadily in normal times. That clarity helps you skip the noise and build sturdy allocations.
On inflation, we cut through the myths. TIPS protect relative to nominal bonds, but they rarely shield an entire portfolio when inflation surges. If you want a real inflation response, look to assets with pricing power and trend sensitivity—managed futures, energy producers, and certain insurers—while reserving long Treasuries for growth shocks. We share why DBMF’s replication approach acts like an “index” for trend following, how STRIPS such as ZROZ can replace some long bonds for targeted rate exposure, and why a global perspective makes U.S.-centric limiting beliefs easier to spot and drop.
If you’re ready to swap wrappers for transparency and replace clever tactics with durable structure, this one’s for you. Follow the show, share it with a friend who’s reconsidering their default fund, and leave a quick review so more investors can find these ideas.
Transcript
Voices [0:00]
A foolish consistency is the hub goblin of little mind, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. A different drummer.
Mostly Queen Mary [0:18]
And now, coming to you from Dead Center on your dial, welcome to Risk Parity Radio, where we explore alternatives and asset allocations for the do-it-yourself investor. Broadcasting to you now from the comfort of his easy chair, here is your host, Frank Vasquez.
Mostly Uncle Frank [0:36]
Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity Radio. If you are new here and wonder what we are talking about, you may wish to go back and listen to some of the foundational episodes for this program.
Voices [0:49]
Yeah, baby, yeah!
Mostly Uncle Frank [0:51]
And the basic foundational episodes are episodes 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9. Some of our listeners, including Karen and Chris, have identified additional episodes that you may consider foundational. And those are episodes 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 56, 82, and 184. And you probably should check those out too, because we have the finest podcast audience available.
Voices [1:26]
Top drawer. Really top drawer.
Mostly Uncle Frank [1:30]
Along with a host named after a hot dog.
Voices [1:34]
Lighten up Francis.
Mostly Uncle Frank [1:37]
But now onward, episode 466. Today on Risk Parity Radio. Yes, it was a short hiatus. It was actually a little road trip to improve and enhance some relationships. So I saw some cousins in Cincinnati, including one of the new babies on my side of the family. Baby Mary, in fact.
Voices [2:13]
Mary Mary, why you buggin?
Mostly Uncle Frank [2:17]
Who was born last February and is already up to 25 pounds. She was gnawing on rib bones like a Neanderthal.
Voices [2:27]
A caveman could do it. What? Oh no, I not cool. I did not know you were there. I didn't know I could change it.
Mostly Uncle Frank [2:36]
Then I went to Chicago and hung out with some childhood friends.
Voices [2:42]
You were the backbone, the nerve center of a great rhythm and blues band. You can make that live, breathe, and jump again.
Mostly Uncle Frank [2:52]
Played some board games, imbibed some things.
Voices [2:56]
Who wants an orange whip? Orange whip? Orange whip? Three orange whips.
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:02]
Had a nice time.
Voices [3:04]
The best, Jerry. The best.
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:06]
And then on my way back, I saw one of my oldest five friends, Jacob Lundfisker, who wrote Early Retirement Extreme.
Voices [3:15]
No one can stop me.
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:17]
He gave me a little wooden puzzle that he made that I haven't been able to unlock yet. He likes to make things out of wood.
Voices [3:24]
Are you stupid or something?
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:27]
And I also saw Diana Miriam and her husband Brad. Diana runs the Economy Conference, which is the only conference we go to, which makes it the best conference.
Voices [3:39]
Top drawer. Really top drawer.
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:43]
Plans for that are underway, and she has given me my assignment in loose terms. What what would you say you do here?
Voices [3:53]
I have people skills. I am good at dealing with people. Can't you understand it?
Mostly Uncle Frank [3:59]
So it was a fun trip, but now it's time to get back to your emails. Before we get to your emails, there was a great podcast that came out this morning. It is the Many Happy Returns podcast, which is run by a couple of financial advisors in the United Kingdom. And they had Tyler from Portfolio Charts on.
Voices [4:20]
No way.
Mostly Uncle Frank [4:22]
Who said lots of interesting things about his site and portfolio construction and even Shannon's demon? Sounded a lot like me if I were actually a normal person.
Voices [4:35]
There's something wrong with us. Something very, very wrong with us. Something seriously wrong with us.
Mostly Uncle Frank [4:43]
And I had stuck with engineering instead of going off and becoming a lawyer. I don't like your attitude.
Voices [4:49]
What else is no?
Mostly Uncle Frank [4:51]
I'm holding you in contempt of court. I will link to that in the show notes and you should check it out. I always find it interesting to listen to financial advisors or other people in finance who are outside the United States because it makes you realize that some of the ideas that we have in the US about things like alternative assets and diversification are really parochial and they're practically limiting beliefs that people outside the United States are not burdened with or stuck with or stuck in. And so they're a lot more open-minded. And I think that podcast is a good example of that. So you should check it out. I'll link to it in the show notes. But now without further ado.
Voices [5:30]
Here I go once again with the email.
Mostly Uncle Frank [5:33]
And first off. First off, we have an email from Phil.
Voices [5:40]
Phil? Hey, Phil? Phil? Phil Connors? Phil Connors, I thought that was you.
Mostly Uncle Frank [5:48]
And Phil writes.
Mostly Queen Mary [5:49]
Dear Frank, greetings from Silver Spring, Maryland. Thank you for the great podcast. I've been listening to Risk Parity Radio for nearly a year now, and it has become a foundational resource in my financial education. I'm in my late 30s and still in the accumulation phase. I don't expect either my wife or I will wish to retire for at least another two decades, but your podcast has helped me think more clearly about our financial situation as we grow our family. My question relates to retirement date funds, specifically what to do with them during the accumulation phase if you already own them. After listening to your critiques of retirement date funds and doing some further research on the matter, I decided a few months ago to change all future contributions to my 401A and 403B accounts to purchase low-cost, broad-based stock funds, S P 500, Small Cap Value, and SUM International. However, my largest position remains in a Fidelity Freedom Retirement Date Fund, FNSDX, which was the default option when I started my current job six years ago. Not only does the expense ratio of 0.65% seem high, the retirement date itself appears to be a fund of fun smorgasboard. My question, should I get rid of all of this retirement fund now and reallocate everything inside these retirement accounts to the lower cost index funds? Or is this a case of the juice not being worth the squeeze and I should just let it be? P.S. I've made a $500 donation to the Father McKenna Center. Please keep up the good work. Phil.
Voices [7:39]
Yeah, baby, yeah.
Mostly Uncle Frank [7:42]
Well, first off, Phil, thank you for being a donor to the Father McKenna Center and a very generous donor at that. As most of you know, we do not have any sponsors on this program. We do have a charity we support. It's called the Father McKenna Center. It supports hungry and homeless people in Washington, D.C. Full disclosure, I am on the board of the charity and am the current treasurer. But if you give to the charity, you get to go to the front of my email line. And all three of our emailers today have done so. Because otherwise the line is about three months long.
Voices [8:17]
Gosh!
Mostly Uncle Frank [8:18]
There are two ways to do that. You can do as Phil has done here and just go to the Father McKenna website and go to their donation page and donate there. Or you can become one of our patrons on Patreon, which you can do at the support page at www.riskperiator.com and follow the links there. Either way, you get to go to the front of the email line, but make sure you mention it in your email so that I can duly move you to the front of the line.
Voices [8:46]
And uh I'll go ahead and make sure you get another copy of that memo.
Mostly Uncle Frank [8:49]
Okay. Now getting to your email. Fortunately, this is a very easy question. Should you move your money out of target date funds and into index funds? And the answer is Yes! Yes, indeed, you should. Especially in retirement accounts where there are no tax consequences.
Voices [9:10]
That is the straight stuff, O Funkmaster.
Mostly Uncle Frank [9:14]
As we know from the research we've looked at, target date funds are very problematic to be using, and they are okay if you don't know what you're doing and you default into them. But once you know a little bit about what you're doing, you should probably not be using them anymore, and should be using index funds, at least in your accumulation phase.
Voices [9:33]
Yeah. Didn't you get that memo?
Mostly Uncle Frank [9:36]
If you want more on that, check out episode 333 of this program. And there is an academic paper there about the problems with target date funds and how you can be losing up to 21% or so of your nest egg by using them instead of index funds.
Voices [9:52]
That's not an improvement.
Mostly Uncle Frank [9:54]
And also in episode 455, we talked about this and linked to a recent episode of the Rational Reminder podcast, where they interviewed another academic from Arizona State, I believe, who has recently written a paper and come to some of the same conclusions.
Voices [10:09]
The next morning you find it built in the realm with Jack Squat!
Mostly Uncle Frank [10:15]
Anyway, maybe they'll fix those things in the future, maybe they won't, but in the meantime, there's no reason that we need to be mucking around with those.
Voices [10:24]
Forget about it.
Mostly Uncle Frank [10:26]
That is another parochialism that has crept into personal finance from the financial services industry largely, which provides these target date funds.
Voices [10:35]
Because only one thing counts in this life. Get them to sign on the line which is dotted.
Mostly Uncle Frank [10:42]
And they are better than not investing, but they are very suboptimal, especially in the long term. So I would move those post-haste over to some appropriate low-cost index funds, and you mentioned S P 500, small cap value, and some international. And one to four funds will do there. If you have an S P 500 and a small cap value, that would be great. So I'm glad you're enjoying the podcast. Hopefully, I will see you at some point in the local area. I actually met another one of my listeners at a local silver diner near Tyson's Corner a couple of weeks ago. Thank you for being a donor to the Father McKenna Center, and thank you for your email.
Voices [11:39]
Second off.
Mostly Uncle Frank [11:41]
Second off, I have an email from Chris.
Voices [11:45]
Ain't nothing wrong with that.
Mostly Uncle Frank [11:47]
This also may be last off since it's a very long email, but we'll see how far we get here.
Voices [11:53]
You're not going to amount to Jack Squad.
Mostly Uncle Frank [11:57]
And Chris writes.
Mostly Queen Mary [11:59]
Hi, Frank and Mary. I recently donated to the Father McKenna Center to take advantage of your jump the line policy. Thanks for doing something like this to benefit those in need. I've been an avid listener to your podcast for the last year plus, and I can honestly say your podcast has caused a significant change in how I approach my investments. I was hoping to get your take on a few items. I'll list them below and you can cut off wherever based on time available. For context, I'm 46, married with three kids.
Voices [12:33]
I don't care about the children. I just care about their parents' money.
Mostly Queen Mary [12:37]
My wife will work for at least another 10 years and then have a high-quality teacher pension. I might keep working, but if I were to get laid off, I might not.
Voices [12:46]
Not gonna do it. Wouldn't be prudent at this juncture.
Mostly Queen Mary [12:49]
We have about $5 million in investments, approximately 25% US, 25% international, 20% government bonds, 10% gold, 10% managed futures, and 10% alternatives like QDSNX. Kids College is funded in 529, so I've reached financial independence and really don't want to drop down to a sub-financial independence threshold, so I think a lot about trying to avoid a big drawdown. One, you've convinced me to invest 10% of my portfolio in managed futures spread across DBMF, CTA, and RSST. I admit it does concern me a bit that these different funds are not very correlated, so it's hard for me to think of them as an asset class that will perform a specific function. Does it give you any qualms that all these funds seem like they are just a guy with a proprietary algorithm trying to pick winners and losers? E.g., KMLM is down 10% since 2022, while CTA is up 35% in the same time frame. 2. For a part of my SPY holdings, I recently created an SPY options collar out till January 2028 that gives me a limited 10% downside and a capped upside of 25% for a net premium of about 2% of the value of the stock being protected. I know there is a decent chance I'll hit the 25% cap and lose some gains, but I think this will allow me to keep more on equities with less risk, knowing if the market drops 30 to 40%, I'm protected. Thoughts? 3. In the same category of trying to protect against drawdowns, I've been researching momentum models like the GEM model by Gary Antonacci. I heard about this on the EFT Atlas podcast, GEM purports to offer 100% equity-like returns with a much higher Sharp ratio and much lower drawdowns. I had always thought momentum strategies were kind of a gimmick, but there seems to be real academic research behind these. Thoughts on these models to avoid long bear markets? 4. In your Bigger Pockets podcast appearance, you made the point that you don't own VGLT for the 4% dividend. You own it because it will likely appreciate if the equity market makes a downturn. Following this line of thinking, how would you feel about someone reducing their bond allocation in something like VGLT and replacing it with Z-R-O-Z? 5. In some previous podcast, you spoke disparagingly about TIPS, which caused me to totally rethink my large TIPS allocation. And it's gone. From my perspective, I thought, I want some bonds, and I'm concerned about inflation. TIPS kills two birds with one stone. That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works. I think after more education, I'm guessing your position is that if inflation grows to the point where it's a problem, it's going to pull down all bonds, and that downward pressure will pull down all bonds, even TIPS. Is that right?
Voices [15:46]
You are correct, sir. Yes.
Mostly Queen Mary [15:49]
Thanks for everything, Chris.
Voices [15:52]
Mary, Mary, I need you again.
Mostly Uncle Frank [16:02]
Well, first off, thank you also for being a donor to the Father McKenna Center, which has moved you up to the front of the email line. And you have five very interesting questions. So let's see if I can do them some justice here.
Voices [16:16]
I could stand up here and talk on and on like some bow weevil sitting on a stump, bragging to a dog in heat.
Mostly Uncle Frank [16:23]
First, just for everybody's context, you say you've reached financial independence and do not want to get stuck in a big drawdown. So I'm going to treat you as if you are retired for the purpose of this discussion and are living off your portfolio, even if you're not. Because you have the same kinds of questions. And your overall theme here seems to be to desire not to have a big or a long drawdown. And the good news is these portfolios are already set up for that. And the easiest way to see that is by looking at the drawdown calculator at portfolio charts. So you can see something like the golden ratio or golden butterfly portfolio. Instead of having up to a 40% drawdown over 10 or 13 years, like a standard portfolio, these kind of portfolios typically have maximum three to four year drawdowns with depth of 15 to 25%. So you basically already have a portfolio that does most of that, with the exception or the issue for you being it does not seem to be diversified out of typical large caps. At least you haven't described it that way. And so most of the solution that I'm going to have for you is not to bother with all of this complicated stuff, but simply divide your stock holdings into growth and value, and whether you use small cap value or some other value is less important. But that is how you're going to avoid a big drawdown without having to go through all these hoops and machinations. So getting to the question specifically, your first one is about managed futures and whether I have any qualms that these funds seem to be like a guy with a proprietary algorithm trying to pick winners and losers.
Voices [18:09]
It's an entirely different kind of flying, altogether. It's an entirely different kind of flying.
Mostly Uncle Frank [18:16]
Well, no, not really, but the way we deal with that is by using replicator funds like DBMF. Because a fund like that is designed to track the SOC Gen Index. And so it is already incorporating all of those people, if you will, all of the different fund providers, it is the closest thing you can have to an index fund. It's basically trying to give you the average of all of the big hedge funds and what they are doing, but do it at a lower cost, which translates into a higher return. And that's how DBMF organizes itself. This question you asked, though, about the dispersion between different funds, particularly in the past year, is an interesting one that was actually addressed on a recent DBMF video. They do a video every month or two. I'll see if I can pull that one up and link to in the show notes. But this past year has been a year of a great deal of dispersion amongst trend followers. And a lot of that dispersion occurs due to the kind of trend they are trying to follow, or whether it's a short, intermediate, or long-term trend, because depending on what algorithms they are using, you will get different results just based on that, even if you are following essentially the same investments. And they generally are, they're generally following the big ones, like interest rates, commodities like gold and oil and stock markets and currencies. But some have more agriculturals than other ones. So it's not surprising that in a year like this one, with not really that much trending, comparatively speaking, that you're going to get more dispersion. If you look at a year like 2022, where you had very strong trends and things like interest rates, you would have seen a lot of these go in the same direction at the same time. But I suppose it is another form of diversification. I think the simpler solution is to use these replicator funds like DBMF, and there are more of them coming out, because they are the closest thing you have to an index fund in this asset class. They still all have essentially zero correlation to regular stock index fund investments or bond index fund investments, which is why you're holding them in the first place.
Voices [20:28]
No more flying solo.
Mostly Uncle Frank [20:30]
All right, question two about using an options collar to essentially give you a buffer or dampener around your S P 500 investments. Well, you can do that, but you're going to pay for it, and your results are not going to be different on a risk reward basis than not using the options collar. There's been a lot of analysis recently since we have a lot of these buy right funds and other funds involving options selling to generate income or options being used to create buffers or other structures around investments to quote make them less risky, unquote. And the answer is in almost all circumstances, unless there is some skill involved in setting up these option strategies, and you're really relying on the skill of the options trading involved, you can replicate any sort of buffer option strategy simply by holding less of the underlying asset along with some cash. So I think that's your better option, not to be messing around with option strategies, but simply to cut the holding in the thing you're worried about and use that to diversify into something else. It doesn't need to be cash, it can be other assets. And also in this case, one of the ways to solve this problem, particularly if you're worried about the valuations in the S P 500 now, is to diversify into value-tilted assets. It's interesting. This is one of the topics that came up on that interview of Tyler on that podcast I mentioned before. And they were asking him about what do you do about these CAPE ratios and valuation metrics? And his answer is the same one I have. It's like that's not a problem if you are properly diversified. Your problem is not valuation. Your problem is you are concentrated in the SP 500 or something else that is essentially large cap growth y and you need to diversify into more value-tilted equities, at least on the equity side. And if you didn't have the other assets, you would need to diversify more into those. So I think the better solution here is just better diversification and not fiddling around with options collars. Although it will work, if you will, in the way you described, it's just more complicated than it needs to be. And I basically have the same answer to your question number three. Here you're asking about momentum models. And there have been these kind of models for at least three decades, as far as I recall, uh, because I recall seeing these kind of strategies repeatedly. And some of them work well and some of them don't. And it is very difficult to say anything particular about this class of strategies because these are all different in terms of what they do. And chances are the more variables and the more complications it has, the more likely it is to work in one environment very well, and in another environment, maybe the next environment, not very well. And I have not analyzed what you're looking at. I will not be analyzing what you're looking at.
Voices [23:32]
I don't think I'd like another job.
Mostly Uncle Frank [23:34]
Because to me, it's it's really kind of a waste of time. That if your problem here that you're trying to solve is to reduce the effect of a downturn, the better strategy is simply to diversify away from the S P 500 into more value-tilted stocks. Because we know that works. And but I can't tell you whether this momentum strategy or any other particular momentum strategy will work for such a thing. I can tell you that it will require a lot more work to implement a momentum strategy than simply holding a naively allocated portfolio to static allocations and then rebalancing to them periodically. And again, if you're trying to avoid a long bear market, like you say here, you're already doing that if you're holding a risk parity style portfolio. That is the purpose or one of the purposes of holding this kind of portfolio. As I mentioned before, these tend to have drawdowns of only three to four years as opposed to having bad decades. And you can see that if you model something like the first decade of this century, because that was a very good example of people holding the S P 500 or tech or a lot of growth stuff really got slaughtered in the first few years of the century between 2000 and 2003. But if you held value-tilted stocks along with your growth year S P five hundred stocks, then you didn't get killed. It wasn't so bad. You recovered. And the same thing was true in 2022. So that is the most effective known solution, not option strategies or momentum strategies or more complicated things, as attractive as those might sound.
Voices [25:21]
Tell me, have you ever heard of single premium life? Because I think that really could be the ticket for you.
Mostly Uncle Frank [25:27]
Question four. Can we replace VGLT with a smaller allocation to something like ZROZ? And the answer is yes, you can do that.
Voices [25:37]
Yes, we can!
Mostly Uncle Frank [25:39]
You won't have exactly the same results, but that is the purpose of holding something like a strips fund, like G O V Z or ZROZ. The idea is you're using it almost as a form of leverage. They tend to have the volatility that's about 1.5 times something like VGLT. So they will go up a lot more in value and in recession when interest rates are falling. Of course, they will go down a lot more in value, comparatively speaking, when interest rates rise, and they'll perform very similarly when interest rates aren't moving at all. So, yes, you can do some of that, and we actually do that in our personal portfolio because it's kind of easy to make adjustments between something like VGLT and ZROZ within an IRA if you are simply trying to tweak your bond allocation in some kind of rebalancing operation. The only caveat I really have with this is these kind of strips funds have really only been around since about 2008. I think EDV was really the first one to come out. So we don't have decades and decades of data. However, if you go to test folio, they have created a simulated version of Z R O Z. I think it's Z-R-O-Z-S-I-M that goes back either to the 60s or the 30s. I can't remember which, but you can certainly model things with that. And question five about tips. We've talked a lot about tips over the years here.
Voices [27:12]
I want you to be nice until it's time to not be nice. Well, uh how are we supposed to know when that is? You won't. I'll let you know. You are the bouncers, I am the cooler. All you have to do is watch my back hand each others. Take out the trash.
Mostly Uncle Frank [27:36]
And if you are holding them to counterinflation, uh you screwed up.
Voices [27:41]
Do you think anybody wants a roundhouse kicked to the face while I'm wearing these bad boys? Forget about it.
Mostly Uncle Frank [27:48]
Tips do not counterinflation. They don't. Let me say that again. Tips are not going to save your portfolio from inflation.
Voices [27:56]
Did you get that memo?
Mostly Uncle Frank [27:58]
They're only going to save that amount of money from inflation versus holding nominal bonds or cash. That is all they do with respect to inflation.
Voices [28:08]
Inconceivable.
Mostly Uncle Frank [28:10]
There actually was an article written in the Wall Street Journal about this recently that another one of my listeners sent me about a study done by an academic, I think, at George Mason University, showing that tips did not perform well in inflationary environments. And it's not surprising because they are bonds, and bonds do not perform well in inflationary environments. So they got killed in 2022.
Voices [28:34]
Uh what? The money in your account. It didn't do too well, it's gone.
Mostly Uncle Frank [28:39]
Now they can also get killed in a deflationary environment like 2008. It dropped suddenly 10% towards the end of that year. It was ugly. It did not perform like you want bonds to perform in a recession.
Voices [28:59]
Okay, turn it on. Kill, turn off, kill. It's a piece of crap. It doesn't work.
Mostly Uncle Frank [29:17]
It was terrible. It was awful. It was useless. It did not perform the one job that it was supposed to perform.
Voices [29:25]
You had only one job.
Mostly Uncle Frank [29:27]
So the idea that tips are going to help your portfolio during an inflationary environment is a myth. It's false.
Voices [29:34]
It's all a fugazi. You know what a fugazi is?
Mostly Uncle Frank [29:37]
Fugazi, it's a fake.
Voices [29:39]
Yeah, Fugazi, Fugazi, it's a wazi, it's a woozy, it's a f fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart.
Mostly Uncle Frank [29:48]
That would only be true if your alternative was a giant pile of cash or a giant pile of nominal bonds. But you're not holding that. The things you want to hold as inflation fighters. In a portfolio are things like managed futures, are things like value-tilted stocks, are things like property and casualty insurance companies, are things like energy stocks. All of those things did well in environments like 2022. And tips did not. So now that you know that tips are not going to fight inflation in your portfolio, I do need to ask you, why are you holding them? What job are they doing? Because you cannot say with a straight face that those things are going to fight inflation. And whoever's been telling you that, that you've been listening to, you need to think about what else they've been saying. Because it might be wrong as well.
Voices [30:36]
Right? Wrong! Wrong trending.
Mostly Uncle Frank [30:40]
So tips does not only not kill two birds with one stone, it actually does not kill any birds. Which means it's generally a waste of space in your portfolio if you want to hold bonds that perform well in a recession, just hold regular treasury bonds. If you want to hold something that fights inflation, do not hold any bonds. Hold something else. And I would encourage you to go to the podcast episode page on the Risk Parity Radio website and search for this topic because we've talked about it over and over again. And I've been saying the same thing for the entire time of this podcast. 2022 has proved me right. Recent research has proved me right. If you're waiting for tips to suddenly rise up and do something wonderful for inflationary purposes or during inflation, you may have a very long time to wait.
Voices [31:32]
You're gonna end up eating a steady diet of government cheese and living in a van down by the river.
Mostly Uncle Frank [31:40]
As William Bernstein wrote in his article what he was talking about, forming a TIPS ladder, he recognized that tips really don't belong in a diversified portfolio. What they are really for is if you are forming some kind of long-term ladder as a substitute for holding a bunch of cash, and so they work more like as a supplement to Social Security or as a kind of annuity for very safe money, but they don't really belong in a portfolio.
Voices [32:10]
Get out and don't come back until you've redeemed yourselves.
Mostly Uncle Frank [32:21]
I'll see if I can link to that article again in the show notes. Because he wrote that several years ago, and despite that, we keep hearing all of these myths, stories, fugazis about how tips are gonna save you during inflation when there is no proof. But in fact, the proof shows the opposite. So those were some very interesting questions, Chris, and thank you for sending them in. Hopefully that helps. And thank you for your email. And I think that's probably enough for one episode. As the next email is a five-parter as well. Shirley, you can't be serious. I am serious. And don't call me Shirley. And besides that, now I see our signal is beginning to fade. But if you have comments or questions for me, please send them to Frank at RiskPardyReo.com. That email is frank at riskperdirear.com. Or you can go to the website www.riskperdy radio.com, put your message into the contact form, and I'll get it that way. If you haven't had a chance to do it, please go to your favorite podcast provider and like, subscribe, give me some stars, a follow, a review. That would be great. Okay. Thank you once again for tuning in. This is Frank Vasquez with Risk Purdy Radio.
Voices [33:43]
Signing off the skin.
Mostly Queen Mary [34:33]
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