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Exploring Alternative Asset Allocations For DIY Investors

Episode 495: EconoMe, Fairfax CASA, Speculations On Chaos, New 401k Regs, And More Cowbell

Wednesday, March 25, 2026 | 37 minutes

Show Notes

In this episode we answer emails from Andy, John, and Todd.  We discuss what "holding dollars" means, the lure of speculation on recent events, the ongoing inadequacies of 401k and 403b plans and their incentives, and small cap value vs. small cap blend.  More Cowbell!  Before that we trade stories from the EconoMe Conference and spotlight Fairfax CASA’s work with foster kids and our fundraising efforts.

Links:

Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA

EconoMe Presentation on Financial Forecasting and Base Rates:  F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive

Testfolio Comparison of LCV vs. LCG vs. SCV vs. SCG:  testfol.io/?s=cSv9C5VxOW9

Testfolio Comparison of Golden Ratio Portfolios with Small Cap Variants:  testfol.io/?s=hTcOUvd0g4J


Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Markets get weird fast: oil shocks, war headlines, and that sickening moment when it feels like every asset in your portfolio is moving together. We dig into a question that pops up in exactly those moments: what does it actually mean when traders say they’re “holding dollars,” and is there a DIY investor version that makes sense? We walk through the mechanics behind dollar demand, why institutional cash moves don’t map neatly onto a home risk parity portfolio, and why cash timing is a low-odds game for long-term investors.

From there, we tackle the real culprit behind most bad decisions: the urge to tinker. We talk leverage, opportunistic investing, and the seductive idea that you’ll spot the perfect entry point if you just watch enough financial news. Our view stays consistent: a disciplined asset allocation, a clear rebalancing rule, and the patience to wait out uncertainty usually beat prediction. If you absolutely must scratch the itch, we discuss how some investors think about volatility tools when the VIX is elevated, and why even “smart” speculation should be capped and rules-based.

We also answer a practical retirement-plan headache: building diversified risk parity style exposure inside a 401k or 403b with limited fund menus. We explain why plan options change slowly, what kinds of “alternative investments” may show up instead, and why pushing for a self-directed brokerage window can be the most effective workaround. Finally, we close with a nerdy but important allocation question: small cap value vs small cap blend, how small cap growth can sneak in, and why index selection (CRSP vs deeper value tilts like S&P 600 value style exposure) can change what your backtest is really telling you.

Subscribe for more DIY investing clarity, share the show with a friend who keeps tinkering, and leave a quick review with your biggest portfolio question.

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Bonus Content

Transcript

Opening Quotes And Welcome

Voices [0:00]

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. A different drummer.


Mostly Queen Mary [0:18]

And now, coming to you from Dead Center on your dial, welcome to Risk Parity Radio, where we explore alternatives and asset allocations for the do-it-yourself investor. Broadcasting to you now from the comfort of his easy chair, here is your host, Frank Vasquez.


Mostly Uncle Frank [0:37]

Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity Radio. If you are new here and wonder what we are talking about, you may wish to go back and listen to some of the foundational episodes for this program. And the basic foundational episodes are episodes one, three, five, seven, and nine. Yes, it is still in my memory, thanks. We have also created an additional resource, a collection of additional foundational episodes and other popular episodes.


Voices [1:07]

We have top men working on it right now. Ooh.


Mostly Uncle Frank [1:14]

Top men. And you can find those on the episode guide page at www.riskparty radio.com. Inconceivable! And all thanks to our friend Luke, our volunteer in Quebec. Zach Gosh. We'd be helpless without him.


Voices [1:36]

I have always depended on the kindness of strangers.


Mostly Uncle Frank [1:41]

Because other than him, it's just me and Marion here.


Voices [1:44]

I'll give you the moon, alright? I'll take it.


Mostly Uncle Frank [1:48]

We have no sponsors, we have no guests, and we have no expansion plans.


Voices [1:53]

I don't think I'd like another job.


Mostly Uncle Frank [1:55]

Over the years, our podcast has become very audienced focused, and I must say we do have the finest podcast audience available.


Voices [2:05]

Really top drawer.


Mostly Uncle Frank [2:07]

Along with a host named after a hot dog.


Voices [2:10]

Lighten up Francis.


Where To Start Listening

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:13]

But now onward, episode 495. Today on Risk Party Radio, we are gonna do what we do S tier, which is answer your emails.


Voices [2:25]

So are you ready? Yeah, hold on. I forgot to put in the crystals.


Economy Conference Takeaways

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:33]

But before we get to that, we're gonna talk a little bit about where we've just been and have a Queen Mary segment to promote her charity. The Fairfax Court Appointed Special Advocates. As you know, we did not have a podcast last weekend because we were at the Economy Conference in Cincinnati.


Voices [2:54]

Whenever you're feeling good and hungry, it's Skyline time. Gather together with friends and family. It's Skyline time.


Mostly Uncle Frank [3:07]

Which we've been going to for the last five years. The only one we missed was the first one. And I do a little presentation about something every year.


Voices [3:21]

This is pretty much the worst video ever made.


Mostly Uncle Frank [3:24]

This year was about financial forecasting and about base rates. And I do have a PowerPoint presentation that I will link to in the show notes for those who are interested in that. Whether you saw it at the Economy Conference or not, there's actually two presentations in one there. First, the real presentation, and then a second version of it starring Edith, Diana Merriam's new dog. But we had a very nice time, saw and talked to a lot of our listeners here, gave away a little bit of swag, had a little trivia contest, and of course made fun of Optimus Bill as much as possible.


Voices [4:07]

I am Optimus Bill.


Mostly Uncle Frank [4:09]

But Diana puts on a great conference and it is sure to sell out again probably by early June when the public tickets go on sale. So if you're interested in that, go sign up for her email list and make sure you get your tickets as soon as possible. The next one will be also the third week of March next year. It is kind of funny, Diana and I have a similar attitude towards people who ask us to do more than we had planned to do, because many people have asked her whether she would run her conference somewhere beside Cincinnati or maybe do more than one. And her answer is always the same.


Voices [4:48]

I don't think I'd like another job.


Fairfax CASA Fundraiser Update

Mostly Uncle Frank [4:51]

And so hopefully we'll see a bunch of you there again next year. Now moving to our favorite segment these days, the Queen Mary segment. The best, Jerry, the best. With its appropriate introduction. It is called Fairfax Casa. The court appointed special advocates who help foster children who have been removed from their homes and are going through the system. April is actually child abuse prevention month, and we did give away some t-shirts and other swag at the economy conference, which I saw a number of you wearing there. Thank you, Tad. And our fundraising has gone very well so far. We have a donor, an anonymous donor, whom we call Matthew 63, who has put up $20,000 in matching funds in support of the Fairfax Casa campaign we are running. As of last week, I think we had already raised $13,000 or $14,000 to match that.


Voices [6:18]

Great success.


Mostly Uncle Frank [6:19]

And we'd like to at least get through the next six. So if you've been thinking about donating the Fairfax Casa, I think now is the time.


Voices [6:28]

Yes!


Mostly Uncle Frank [6:29]

But now Mary is going to read another one of her vignettes about the work of the Fairfax Casas in our foster system. And here she is.


Mostly Queen Mary [6:40]

Skylar and Peyton, ages five and two, entered the child welfare system after they were found wandering the parking lot of a local hotel all alone. Upon investigation, the Department of Family Services found there were no family members available to care for these girls, so they were put into foster care. Despite the global pandemic, Skylar and Peyton were greeted with open arms when they arrived at their foster home. The girls' foster parents had previously fostered and adopted two children, and their house was filled with joy, age-appropriate activities, and lots of love. Transitioning to life in a new home with all new people was very difficult for the girls. They missed their mother greatly and were dealing with the trauma of experiencing abuse and neglect. When Skylar struggled with nightmares, bedwetting, and behavioral outbursts, she was met with patience and understanding by her foster parents. During their time in foster care, the girls had three different social workers, two different home-based workers, and three different therapists. Their casa, on the other hand, was a constant, visiting them twice a month and advocating for their needs to be met through the duration of their time in care. After six months of the CASA working with Skylar's teachers and school psychologists, Skylar received an IEP and the quality of education that she deserved. To the Casa's excitement, the foster parents adopted and accepted Skylar and Peyton into their home forever. There was a great deal of change and trauma in these girls' lives, but the love and kindness they have received from their foster parents sets them up for a bright future.


Mostly Uncle Frank [8:17]

Thank you, Mary, for that. And just to remind everyone, if you donate to Fairfax Casa, you get to go to the front of our email line, even in front of the donors to my charity, the Father McKenna Center, we'll go second in the email line right now. But if you're not a donor, you're probably going to have to wait about six months now.


Voices [8:42]

Gosh!


Email Bag Begins

Mostly Uncle Frank [8:44]

But now getting to those emails. And without further ado.


Voices [8:49]

Here I go once again with the email.


What Does Holding Dollars Mean

Mostly Uncle Frank [8:52]

And first off. First off with an email from Andy. And Andy, right?


Mostly Queen Mary [9:11]

Hey Frank. I hope you have a good break at the Economy Conference. I am still an avid listener. I consider myself an OG, as I think you only had about 30 episodes in the can when I started listening.


Voices [9:24]

Since before your son burned hot in space, and before your race was born.


Mostly Queen Mary [9:30]

A few weeks ago, I gave a donation to Fairfax Casa, and I am still a Patreon donor to the Father McKenna Center.


Voices [9:37]

Yeah, baby, yeah.


Mostly Queen Mary [9:39]

Mary's work with Fairfax Casa is amazing. What a great thing to do. Here are my questions. I am 100% sure which clip will accompany the second part.


Voices [9:50]

Good about it.


Mostly Queen Mary [9:51]

Dear Frank and Mary, congratulations on the continued success of the show. I jumped on board after the first choose of Fi Frank was on.


Voices [9:59]

The Inquisition. Let's begin the Inquisition.


Mostly Queen Mary [10:03]

Look out, see, we have a mission. The sample portfolios have yet to go through a whole economic cycle, but we do seem to be going through an interesting period caused by the disruption in oil prices.


Voices [10:17]

I'm an oil man.


Mostly Queen Mary [10:20]

I have two related questions about what we are seeing. One, on the macro trading floor podcast, I heard them talking about holding dollars. I guess the dollar rose when the war started. I realize these are institutional investors, but what does it mean to hold dollars? Would that be institutions buying US government bills? I figure it must be as my long-term treasury sure as heck haven't gone up these past few weeks. Is there a DIY investor version of holding dollars? I realize that that boat has already sailed, so it probably wouldn't be prudent at this time. But can you help me understand what they mean?


Voices [11:00]

We can put that check in a money market mutual fund, then we'll reinvest the earnings into foreign currency accounts with compounding interest and it's gone.


Mostly Queen Mary [11:09]

2. I understand that a totally reasonable thing to do is just not touch our portfolios. But given that we are all DIY investors listening to Risk Parity Radio every week, we should probably be honest with ourselves and admit that we are prone to tinker. You have a gambling problem. As we are in one of these periods where it seems like most of our assets have a correlation of one and are all heading down. I am early in retirement, three years in, aged 53, and hopefully have many years to go. I.e. my assets have a long time horizon.


Voices [11:56]

Target should be You will have to be some. You will have to be some. You will have to be some.


Mostly Queen Mary [12:28]

Or is this just a recency bias caused by 2022 and COVID? Can opportunistic investing play a part in a sensible risk parity approach to investing? Thanks, Andy.


Voices [12:40]

You can't handle the gambling problem.


Mostly Uncle Frank [12:45]

Well, thank you for being a donor to Fairfax Casa and the Father McKenna Center, and being one of our longest longtime listeners.


Voices [12:54]

Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?


Why DIY Investors Avoid Cash Timing

Mostly Uncle Frank [12:58]

It has been a long, strange trip now, hasn't it? But now getting your questions. First, holding dollars. We live in interesting times, don't we?


Voices [13:48]

You see, my mule don't like people laughing. It's the crazy idea you're laughing at him. So if you apologize like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it. Uh what? It's gone. It's all got.


Mostly Uncle Frank [14:53]

And in this case, because people are worried about buying oil, a lot of the dollars are being held so people can buy oil. We are here to try to explain to you what it is we do here.


Voices [15:05]

We are commodities brokers, William.


Mostly Uncle Frank [15:08]

Especially from countries in Asia that don't produce a lot of oil but are dependent on oil from the Middle East. How people in the Middle East are also worried about buying other things, like food and weapons. And that is also, at least from reports that I have heard, led to the selling of a lot of gold in the Middle East. Although there's been a lot of selling of gold by Russia actually in the past few months that was just revealed recently. Apparently, Russia sold about 500,000 ounces of gold to fund its own war in January and February of this year. And if you're wondering what these short-term traders are doing with these dollars, they're pretty much sitting on them waiting for some signal of something to happen with whatever crystal ball or consulting. Because they will eventually buy something else with their dollars. And we're not sure what that thing will be at this point in time.


Voices [16:03]

Tell me just why you think the price of pork belllies is going down, will you? Okay. Pork belly prices have been dropping all morning. Which means everybody's sitting in their office and they're waiting for them to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap and go long. So people that own the pork belly contracts are going batshit. They're thinking, hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the Kung Fu grip. Okay? And my wife ain't gonna wanna f my wife ain't gonna make love to me because I ain't got no money, right? So they're sitting there and they're panicking, they screaming, sell, sell, because they don't want to lose all their money, right? They out there panicking right now. I can feel it. They out there. They're panicking, look at it. He's right, Mortimer. My God, look at it. I wait till you get to about 64, then I'd buy. You have cleared out all the suckers by then.


Mostly Uncle Frank [16:48]

But unless you consider yourself some kind of trader, no, I would not recommend holding dollars or going to cash or doing anything like that. Because the chances of selling at the right time and then buying something else at the right time are pretty slim and none. And slim just died, as one of my law professors used to say.


Voices [17:08]

Dead is dead.


Mostly Uncle Frank [17:10]

I think you should just wait to see what happens and then rebalance your assets as appropriate going forward. Because if you're waiting for some kind of signal to do something, chances are you'll probably miss it. It'll occur over a weekend or over a night or something like that.


Voices [17:28]

You can actually feel the energy from your ball by just putting your hands in and out.


Mostly Uncle Frank [17:34]

And honestly, I think that most institutional investors who are attempting to make moves and hold dollars, unless they have money they need to pay out to something, are probably going to be in worse shape than if they had not done anything at all in the long run here. So the best DIY behavior here to adopt is to do nothing.


Voices [17:55]

Yeah, well. The dude to binds.


Leverage Urges And VIX Speculation

Mostly Uncle Frank [18:06]

The do to binds. Which leads to our next question. Should you be considering adding leverage at some point? The answer is probably not. Definitely probably not.


Voices [18:22]

Forget about it.


Mostly Uncle Frank [18:24]

Unless you would consider that speculative money you're willing to lose.


Voices [18:29]

Do you think anybody wants a roundhouse kicked to the face while I'm wearing these bad boys?


Mostly Uncle Frank [18:33]

Because again, the probability of timing something in some positive way is going to be relatively slim and very difficult to deal with.


Voices [18:43]

Emotions running high, yes.


Mostly Uncle Frank [18:45]

Now there are all kinds of interesting kinds of speculations one might make, usually involving options of some kind.


Voices [18:53]

One minute you're up half a million in soybeans, and the next boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your fentanyl. Are you with me?


Mostly Uncle Frank [18:59]

I know one of our listeners likes to invest in a fund called SVOL, S V-O-L, which is essentially an inverse VIX fund. And this would be the time you would be able to speculate with something like that because the VIX is high, and whenever there's another piece of news, sometimes the VIX goes up even more. The way you would play that is to buy the VIX whenever it's over some big number like 25 or 30 or something more than that. With the idea that you're just gonna hold on to that and wait till the VIX goes back down to below 20 or some other low number, and then sell it, presumably at some form of a profit.


Voices [19:42]

Rex Quando, we use the buddy system. No more flying solo.


Mostly Uncle Frank [19:46]

You probably won't make much on something like that, but on the other hand, you probably won't lose money. And if you're feeling the need to just have to speculate on something, you could do a lot worse than something like that.


Voices [19:57]

You need somebody watching your back at all times.


Mostly Uncle Frank [20:02]

But in the end, yes, I do think it's your recency bias talking. I think because the most recent downturns in years like 2020 or 2022 have been very short. There's a feeling amongst investors who haven't been around that long that every downturn is going to be very short. And the answer to that is it's true for most of them, but you never know when that long one's going to come and whether there's going to be some other thing that happens after the war or during the war that causes a much longer downturn.


Voices [20:36]

But that's okay. Remember, there are no stupid questions, just stupid people.


Mostly Uncle Frank [20:41]

If you're wondering what that would look like, it would be something that triggered some kind of big recession like these private debt funds that seem to be having trouble making their payments or other problems like that. That's what I hear a lot of people talking about.


Voices [20:56]

It's a conspiracy man!


Mostly Uncle Frank [20:58]

But no, that's not something I would be acting on either. It's just to say that even if you think you can predict when this war is going to be over or resolved in some manner, that doesn't really tell you whether this is going to be a short downturn or a long downturn overall.


Voices [21:15]

Now you can also use the ball to connect to the spirit world.


Mostly Uncle Frank [21:19]

So my best advice is hold on to your money and stop watching the news. At least the financial news.


Voices [21:36]

You never know what you're gonna get.


Mostly Uncle Frank [21:40]

Thank you for being a double donor to Fairfax Casa and the Father McKenna Center. And thank you for your email.


Voices [22:01]

Second off.


Mostly Uncle Frank [22:02]

Second off of an email from John.


Voices [22:06]

Hey, John. Hey, let's go to the John. Huh, John? Let's go.


Mostly Uncle Frank [22:11]

And John Wright.


Mostly Queen Mary [22:13]

Hi, Frank and Mary. Greetings again from Charlottesville. It's been a while since I wrote in, and Mary's Fairfax Casa donation drive has spurred me to action. Wow, is that very nice? I made a donation today to Fairfax Casa in honor of Mary, as well as a donation to our local casa in memory of our friend Gene, who was a Casa volunteer there. I have some more risk parody jokes today, as well as one honest to goodness question. First, the jokes. One, most listeners already know that the host of this program is named after a hot dog, but we few, we happy few we band of brothers, who are attentive enough to read the Father McKenna Center Annual Report Fine Print know that the host is in fact a junior hot dog.


Voices [23:05]

Junior? Yes, sir. It is you, Junior. Don't call me that, please.


Mostly Queen Mary [23:14]

Two, based on your advice, I'm planning to visit Monte Carlo in the near future with most of my retirement savings. I looked for a big crystal ball, you know, a really big one, to predict my future, but all I could find was a big earn. It calculated that I have a 32.33 repeating, of course, percentage percentage of survival. It's a lot better than I usually do, so I think I'll stick with my plan. What do you think?


Voices [23:45]

We should be able to pull it off this time. Uh what do you think, Abdul? Can you give me a number crunch real quick? Uh yeah, give me a sec. I'm coming up with 32.33 uh repeating, of course, percentage of survival. That's a lot better than we usually do. Uh ready, guys. Let's do this.


Mostly Queen Mary [24:10]

Three. I was chatting with a billionaire friend of mine the other day and asked him what he was invested in. He mumbled something that I couldn't really make out. It was either inequities or inequity. Either way, it sure is working for him.


Voices [24:30]

Well, yes, you you take my dreams, like the one that you just interrupted. It was marvelous. I was foreclosing the mortgage on a lifelong friend, and I was creating a poverty pocket right in the heart of Beverly Hills.


Mostly Queen Mary [24:42]

On to my question. My wife and I are in the latter part of our savings slash accumulation years, and we've transitioned to a risk parity style diversified portfolio across various asset locations. We have about 50% of our invested assets in 401k and 403B tax-deferred accounts that we still participate in through our current employers. It's been annoyingly challenging to diversify our portfolio as a whole within the fund constraints of these tax-deferred accounts. No gold, no managed futures, no cowbell or other value-tilted equities in the 403B.


Voices [25:19]

I'm telling you, fellas, you're gonna want that cowbell.


Mostly Queen Mary [25:23]

No long-term treasuries in the 401k, and certainly no leverage anywhere.


Voices [25:28]

No Peter, no Dick, no rod.


Mostly Queen Mary [25:31]

Not that I'm much of a gambler.


Voices [25:33]

Yet.


Mostly Queen Mary [25:34]

Winner winner, chicken dinner. The promise of liberalization of tax-deferred accounts from last year's executive order certainly hasn't hit my world yet. Where do you stand on this topic? Do you think individual risk parity investors will ever see a good range of fund options in tax-deferred accounts? Or will the new alternative asset offerings tend to be a bunch of private equity funds with mediocre returns, high fees, illiquidity, hidden volatility, and pretend diversification?


Voices [26:08]

Because only one thing counts in this life. Get them to sign on the line which is dotted. Best wishes, John. I just want to have a happy childhood too, but long John Silver, I mean, I don't know what to say.


Mostly Uncle Frank [26:23]

John, you are indeed one of our jolly jokers in the dive bar here. And I do appreciate your presence.


Voices [26:32]

Here's Johnny.


Push For A Self Directed Option

Mostly Uncle Frank [26:34]

And thank you also for being a donor to Fairfax Casa, which has moved you to the front of the email line as well. As to your question, yeah, I think it's going to be a really long time before we see a lot of movement or improvement in what is being offered in 401ks, and 403Bs are going to be an even worse sell because 403Bs were traditionally offered as pension replacement things from insurance companies, and a lot of 403B providers still basically farm out their offerings to a variety of insurance shyster type people.


Voices [27:12]

Tell me, have you ever heard of single premium life? Because I think that really could be the ticket for you.


Mostly Uncle Frank [27:18]

You have to remember that a 401k or a 403B is an expense as far as the employer is concerned. And so what they are interested in doing is minimizing that expense, but also only using that plan essentially to compete with other similar employers. And so it's kind of a chicken and egg thing where an employer offering a particular 401k plan or other retirement plan arrangement usually doesn't feel any pressure to do anything different until its competitor employers start doing something different. And that can take a long time. What I think would make more sense to advocate for if you have an opportunity in your particular system is to advocate for a self-directed option because those exist right now, and those are actually the best of both worlds if they can be done at a reasonable cost. Because what a self-directed option is, is you basically get to create this little sub-account which acts just like a regular kind of brokerage account. You move money in there, and then typically you're able to just buy whatever ETFs you could possibly want. My old employer had one of those going back almost 20 years now is when they first started it. So this is nothing new. And to me, it's a better option than trying to advocate for particular funds or investments being offered by the plan itself. Because I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon, despite that executive order.


Voices [28:48]

Next morning you find it filled in the brim with Jack Squat.


Mostly Uncle Frank [28:54]

What is more likely to happen is that you're going to be offered things you don't want, including things like private equity and private debt.


Voices [29:02]

Always be closing. Always be closing.


Mostly Uncle Frank [29:08]

And strange-looking annuities or buffered products or other things like that.


Voices [29:13]

A guy don't walk on the lot lest he wants to buy.


Mostly Uncle Frank [29:16]

Stuff essentially that the financial services industry can make a lot of money off of. I imagine you will find a way to muddle through, and since you only have 50% of your assets in those type of accounts, you should be able to work around it for the most part. So sorry I can't offer you any better ideas, but thank you for being a double donor. Thank you for being a loyal listener and recontour. And thank you for your email.


Voices [30:09]

I came here to save you. Oh yeah? And who's gonna come to save you, Junior? I told you. Last off.


Mostly Uncle Frank [30:29]

Last off of an email from Todd.


Voices [30:33]

What about Todd? Todd, Todd, Tad, Tadpole. Our sons of Tadpole. Hey, Tadpole, I don't like ya. Thank your parents. No, Tom. I said Todd, not Tad. I mean, that's cheating. You changed the name. Yeah, and it took five seconds. Might take a kid ten.


Mostly Uncle Frank [30:50]

And Todd, right?


Mostly Queen Mary [30:52]

Dear Frank. I've been using portfoliocharts.com to try out different potential asset allocations. And I've noticed that in portfolios like the Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio, that using small cap blend rather than small cap value doesn't create a substantial safe withdrawal rate decrease. I understand Shannon's demon, but for all practical purposes, do you think that small cap value versus small cap blend makes enough of a difference to matter? Thank you.


Voices [31:23]

Guess what? I got a fever. And the only prescription is more cowbell.


Mostly Uncle Frank [31:30]

Well, first off, I should note that this email is from September, and I thought I had already answered it, but I couldn't find the answer. I couldn't find the podcast where I did answer it, so perhaps I am answering it again.


Voices [31:45]

Are you stupid or something?


Index Choice And Better Backtests

How To Reach Us And Reviews

Mostly Uncle Frank [31:48]

So be it. The answer is I do think there is a significant difference between small cap value and small cap blend. And it's mainly the allocation to small cap growth that is in small cap blend. If you think about the style boxes, at least the four corners of what they call the style boxes, which would be large cap value, large cap growth, small cap value, and small cap growth. It's pretty clear on long-term performance that large cap growth and small cap value tend to have the best performances and tend to be the leaders as far as market performance is concerned. Large cap value tends to have lower performance, but also a lot lower volatility, so it can be useful in many kinds of retirement portfolios. And when somebody is talking about quote dividend investing, unquote, the real benefit to that is not the dividends at all, but the fact that that is generally an allocation to large cap value, so it generally has a lower volatility to it. But small cap growth tends to be by far the worst place to be most of the time because it's got very volatile performance and it doesn't seem to perform that much better than the market and may perform worse than the market in any bad market for sure. One of the things I learned by listening to a lot of Paul Merriman's work is that if you were trying to do just one thing to make your portfolio better, you'd probably just eliminate all allocation to small cap growth. And if you did that one thing, you would probably outperform the market over time and also have a portfolio with lower volatility than the overall market. So when you move from small cap value over to small cap blend, you're essentially adding small cap growth into your mix. And it's not going to help you. And yes, I would expect it to perform worse over long periods of time and be less diversified from things like large cap growth. This is also why a portfolio that is just divided into large cap, mid-cap, and small cap tends to be relatively mediocre. That is not really that great of a diversification just on size, because size works best when it's combined with other factors. Now, as for your experience and looking at these things and what the differences might be, there is an issue here as to which index you're actually looking at. Because in particular, the CRSP index, which is the oldest one and gives you the oldest and longest series of data, and is also represented by funds like VBR, is also not the most small and value-y of the indexes that you could look at. So it's not going to be as different from small cap blend than something like the SP 600 small cap value index or something like one of these funds from Avantis or DFA like AVUV. And I would go play around with some of these variations over at Testfolio. You can get a version of small cap value similar to AVUV by using the fund DVSVX, which at least gets you back to 1993. But then you can compare the portfolios with various small cap value funds, which I definitely would do when you're comparing these kinds of portfolios. So I'll leave you a testfolio link that you can play around with and hopefully it will help. And thank you for your email. But now I see our signal is beginning to fade. If you have comments or questions for me, please send them to Frank at RiskPartyrarear.com. Then email us frank at riskparty rare.com. Or you can go to the website www.riskparty.com. Put your message into the contact form and I'll get it that way. If you haven't had a chance to do it, please go to your favorite podcast provider and like, subscribe, give me some stars, a follow, a review. That would be great. Okay. Thank you once again for tuning in. This is Frank Vasquez with Risk Parity Radio. Signing off.


Mostly Queen Mary [37:11]

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