Episode 500 Kickoff And Easter Eggs

Voices [0:00]

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. A different drummer.

Mostly Queen Mary [0:18]

And now, coming to you from Dead Center on your dial, welcome to Risk Parity Radio, where we explore alternatives and asset allocations for the do-it-yourself investor. Broadcasting to you now from the comfort of his easy chair, here is your host, Frank Vasquez.

Mostly Uncle Frank [0:36]

Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity Radio. If you are new here and wonder what we are talking about, you may wish to go back and listen to some of the foundational episodes for this program. And the basic foundational episodes are episodes 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9. Yes, it is still in my memory, thanks. We have also created an additional resource, a collection of additional foundational episodes and other popular episodes.

Voices [1:07]

We have top men working on it right now. Ooh.

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:14]

Top men. And you can find those on the episode guide page at www.riskparty radio.com. Inconceivable! And all thanks to our friend Luke, our volunteer in Quebec. We'd be helpless without him.

Voices [1:35]

I have always depended on the kindness of strangers.

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:41]

Because other than him, it's just me and Marion here. I'll give you the move, all right?

Voices [1:46]

I'll take it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:48]

We have no sponsors, we have no guests, and we have no expansion plans.

Voices [1:53]

I don't think I'd like another job.

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:55]

Over the years, our podcast has become very audience focused, and I must say we do have the finest podcast audience available.

Voices [2:03]

Top drawer. Really top drawer.

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:07]

Along with a host named after a hot dog.

Voices [2:10]

Light in the French.

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:13]

But now onward, episode 500. Episode 500. Who would have thought we would have gotten to episode 500 when I started this in 2020 during COVID?

Voices [2:31]

He didn't fall? Inconceivable. But we are here. Are you trying to keep us out of Del Boca Vista? Still kicking. So you're moving there for spite? Absolutely. No one tells Frank Costanza what to do!

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:49]

Somebody asked me recently, so when you get to episode 500, you're gonna do something special? And I kinda had two reactions to that. One was this.

Voices [2:58]

I don't think I'd like another job.

Mostly Uncle Frank [3:01]

And another one was this.

Voices [3:03]

You mean let me understand this, because I you know, maybe it's me. I'm funny how? I mean funny, like I'm a clown, I amuse you. I make you laugh. What do you mean, funny? Funny how? How am I funny?

Mostly Uncle Frank [3:15]

But I did think about what I haven't I really done for a while that people get nostalgic about. As many of you know, I've been playing around a lot with artificial intelligence to create various videos and slideshows and other things like that. So I wanted to create a compendium of rant episodes. We're moving in lock stock and barrel.

Voices [3:38]

We're gonna be in a pool, we're gonna be in a clubhouse, and you'll that shuffle moment caught, and my daddy owned it gave me out.

Mostly Uncle Frank [3:49]

I went back to our trusty website and looked up all the rant episodes or the ones with the word rant in the title, and I did succeed in making an entertaining slideshow out of that, which is entitled The Good, the Bad and the Financial Miss Wisdom.

Voices [4:06]

Well, we're not just gonna let you walk out of here. Who's we sucker? Smith and Wesson and me.

Mostly Uncle Frank [4:18]

With a Western theme to it. And I'll put that in the uh show notes so you can check that out.

Voices [4:35]

Go ahead, make my day.

Mostly Uncle Frank [4:38]

Unfortunately, I was not able to make a video that really held up and was very entertaining based on that. I did make a nice little video about the four quadrant model that some of you may like in the style of Jan Vermeer. And I'll also link to that in the show notes so you can consider those your episode 500 Easter eggs. And as bonus material, we'll do a little bit of ranting today. We'll call it a victory rant today. In response to one of our emails.

Voices [5:08]

I haven't beaten anyone this bad in a long time. I haven't beaten anyone this bad in a long time.

Mostly Uncle Frank [5:19]

And of course, it is time for our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at www.riskpartyrader.com on the portfolios page. Before I put you to sleep with that, we will attend to our emails. And so without further ado.

Voices [5:38]

Here I go once again with the email.

Email On Value Tilt Portfolio

Mostly Uncle Frank [5:41]

And first off. First off of an email from Ronald.

Voices [5:48]

Are you mystified, bewildered, and puzzled? You needn't be. All these shenanigans take place in a hilarious new Hollywood movie called Bedtime for Bonzo, starring Ronald Regan, Diana Lynn, and Bonzo, that amazing chimp.

Mostly Uncle Frank [6:03]

And Ronald writes.

Mostly Queen Mary [6:05]

Hi, Frank and Mary. I thoroughly enjoy your podcast and have learned a lot. I personally follow your advice for my own retirement planning.

Voices [6:15]

Yes!

Mostly Queen Mary [6:16]

I have now found myself involved with a nonprofit that has a sizable portfolio. Historically, the portfolio has been managed very conservatively because of the need for capital preservation. However, because of some restructuring done several years ago, capital preservation is no longer a priority and growth is now the objective. To that end, I am considering the following portfolio: 38% AVUV, 12% AVDV, 26% VFMF, 22% VV, 10% VBR. While we will make a distribution from time to time, they will be 100% discretionary and can be paused if needed to allow for recovery from any downturn. I believe you have recommended a 50-50 SCV-LCG split for the accumulation phase in a personal retirement account. I'm interested in your thoughts on the above compared with the SCV LCG split. And why would you prefer one versus the other in the institutional scenario above, and if that would be different for personal retirement? Thanks for all you do, RT. It's a monkey!

Mostly Uncle Frank [7:34]

Well, Ronald, this is a very interesting question. But I do see the secret of your success here. If you add up the numbers that you provided 38, 12, 26, 22, and 10, they actually add up to 108%.

Voices [7:51]

The invention, my dear friends, is 93% perspiration, 6% electricity, 4% evaporation, and 2% butter spot shrip. That's 105%. Any good.

Victory Rant On The TIPS Myth

Mostly Uncle Frank [8:08]

So you must be taking some leverage on this portfolio. And of course, over time, that will probably outperform another stock-based portfolio that is only 100% and not 108%. I'm assuming that was a typo in one of these percentages is wrong, so that it should be a total of 100%. And what you've really got here is a all-value-tilted portfolio. So that fund V V is like a large cap blend. It's like an S P 500 tilted towards value a little bit. VFMF is really a mid-cap value fund. And then AVUV and VBR are both small cap value funds, as well as AVDV. AVDV is just an international version of that. Now, if you look at the long-term performance of something like this, it will outperform most other combinations of funds. But it has to be very long, and that is going to be your issue here. Because if you go back 30 years or 40 years or 100 years, yes, this portfolio looks very good. If you go back only about 17 or 18 years to the great financial crisis and run it from then and compare that with any portfolio that has growth stocks in it, this portfolio underperforms that. Second off of an email from George. How about George? And George Wright.

Voices [14:05]

Please, somebody stop this. Let's rumble.

Mostly Uncle Frank [14:09]

Now, what did I say before about a victory rant?

Voices [14:13]

I want you to be nice. Until it's time to not be nice. Well, uh, how are we supposed to know when that is? You won't. I'll let you know.

Mostly Uncle Frank [14:28]

I can just dust off the old rant button. Just find it here. And away we go. Well, let's start the insanity. Giddy up. So let me just first give you the title of this Wall Street Journal article that George sent me. It's from November 6, 2025. The title of the article is Inflation Protected Bonds Fail. They don't help when inflation is high.

Voices [15:07]

Do you think I got where I am today because I dress like Peter Pan here?

Mostly Uncle Frank [15:12]

Let me read that again. Inflation protected bonds fail and don't help when inflation is high.

Voices [15:18]

Forget about it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [15:20]

There's your tips.

Voices [15:22]

Forget about it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [15:24]

Now I've been ranting for years about this.

Voices [15:28]

You're not going to amount to Jack Squat.

Mostly Uncle Frank [15:32]

That people in the financial services industry have had a long habit of misrepresenting tips and what they do and misconstruing them and telling people to use them in inappropriate circumstances. They've been giving objectively bad advice about tips for a really long time, and they haven't learned anything, and they continue to do this.

Voices [15:57]

Am I right or am I right or am I right? Right, right, right.

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:01]

One of my favorite whipping boys in this area is the economist Larry Kotlikoff.

Voices [16:06]

Hello, Newman.

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:07]

He's been doing this for 20 years. I have a book on my shelf, Spend to the End, where he's recommending that people put a third of their money in tips. And if they would have done that, they would have been screwed. And he's still saying the same thing. And I still hear the same thing when people start talking about portfolio construction. Well, you gotta add these tips because they're gonna help you with inflation. No, they're not gonna help you with inflation.

Voices [16:32]

Wrong!

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:33]

It's an idiotic statement. It has no basis in fact. And now the Wall Street Journal says so.

Voices [16:39]

Did you get that memo?

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:41]

So, how many of these people are still not gonna change? Hello, Newman. They're still gonna be saying the same old foolish consistency stuff. Even though the data presented by the Wall Street Journal, as if they don't even read the Wall Street Journal, or don't pay attention to data or facts or anything like that, they're still gonna be saying the same stuff.

Voices [17:02]

Newman!

Mostly Uncle Frank [17:04]

I guarantee it. But let me just read you some highlights from this article because they are that good. It says The bonds known as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are designed to protect investors' income against rising prices and perhaps even deliver an extra bit of return. But do tips, as the bonds are commonly known, live up to their promise.

Voices [17:32]

Do you think anybody wants a roundhouse kicked to the face while I'm wearing these bad boys? Forget about it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [17:38]

And the answer is they most certainly do not. Fact, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through lifestyle. And here's the test. Putting tips to the test over the past three decades of data, my research assistants and I find they don't deliver when inflation is high. Tips don't deliver when inflation is high.

Voices [17:58]

Yeah.

Mostly Uncle Frank [17:59]

Didn't you get that memo? In fact, if you are jumping into tips when inflation is high, like Kotlikoff and these other people recommend, Newman, you have already missed the boat and likely will underperform. If you follow standard advice about tips, you will miss the boat and you will underperform.

Voices [18:20]

Hello? Hello, anybody home? Huh? Think McFly. Think.

Mostly Uncle Frank [18:25]

So looking at the actual data, not what people want to believe is true, they pulled all the data going back to 1997 when tips first arrived on the scene. And the first thing they found is the first interesting thing we observe is that tips perform better when inflation is low. When inflation is low, not high. Get over it.

Voices [18:49]

You can't handle the truth.

Mostly Uncle Frank [18:51]

Specifically, in the months where inflation slid, the average return for tips was 0.31%. In months where inflation spiked, the average monthly return for tips was 0.19%. It's not a big difference. But it is a difference. And then they looked at the recent case history, namely 2022, which is the first time that we had a stagflation environment since TIPS arrived on the scene, basically. And they write that the 2021 to 22 timeframe serves as a case study to highlight these main findings. And I further quote: if getting into TIPS in 2022 and inflation was hitting its maximum levels and the Fed was raising rates considerably, the average investor would have lost dearly. Lost out dearly.

Voices [19:43]

That's a fact, Jeff.

Mostly Uncle Frank [19:45]

No matter what Kotlikoff told you. During 2022, TIPS delivered an annualized return of negative 11.51%. Negative, they sucked. Doing worse, worse than the average fixed income fund, which delivered a return of negative 11.16% for the year.

Voices [20:08]

Idiot.

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:10]

Now we've already known this, we've already said this. Why don't people understand the truth?

Voices [20:16]

You can't handle the crystal ball.

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:19]

Because they'd rather wallow in their stories than can't handle the truth.

Voices [20:23]

You can't handle the truth!

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:26]

Further quoting, one can't get into tips after inflation has already skyrocketed and expect protection. In fact, you couldn't have gotten into them before that and expected protection, because you still would have lost 11.5% in 2022. So that is the truth from the Wall Street Journal, as if we really needed the Wall Street Journal to tell us this, since we have the data and can analyze it ourselves, and know that what these personal finance recommendations about putting tips in your portfolio have been wrong and have been wrong for a really long time. It's bad advice.

Voices [21:01]

Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [21:05]

Because tips as an allocation in a portfolio are never going to protect the portfolio against inflation.

Voices [21:13]

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

Mostly Uncle Frank [21:17]

If you compare them to a bucket of cash or nominal bonds, yes, it will protect that kind of uh allocation from inflation. But that very much limits the usefulness of this. If you want something to protect a portfolio from inflation, you have to hold things like value-tilted stocks, things that invest in energy or property and casualty companies, both worked well in 22. Managed futures are the best thing to hold in that kind of environment. The problem is many people try to treat tips as if they're some kind of special alternative investment. And they're just not. They're still bonds, and bonds are just bad things. To hold in an inflationary environment. A lot of this goes to the foolish consistency of saying that we should only be holding stocks and bonds in our portfolios and not using alternative assets. This leads to pseudo-alternative investments. Tips are one of those things. People look at all different kinds of bonds and try to put them in different portfolios, whether they're high-yield bonds or tips or some other weirdo corporate thing that they've come up with, or private equity, or private debt. All of those things are things that are pretending to be alternatives, but are not real alternatives. And if you just stop pretending and actually use some real alternatives, you wouldn't be having these problems. We wouldn't be having this conversation. I wouldn't have to rant about this a couple times a year because you would have gotten the memo.

Voices [23:04]

And uh, I'll go ahead and make sure you get another copy of that memo.

Mostly Uncle Frank [23:08]

Okay. Tips are not an alternative investment. They're just bonds. They're not going to perform well in an inflationary environment. They're not going to protect a portfolio from inflation.

Voices [23:18]

It's a piece of crap. It doesn't work. Well, I could have told you that.

Mostly Uncle Frank [23:24]

The only kind of portfolio they would protect from inflation is one that was all cash or all bonds. And nobody's going to hold that. So what's the point?

Voices [23:33]

You had only one job.

Mostly Uncle Frank [23:35]

Now, some people are getting the clue that tips are a very limited use kind of asset. One of those people is William Bernstein, who wrote an article a couple years ago, and one of the things he said in the article was that he realized, talking to advisors, that tips really don't have a position in a well-diversified portfolio. What they are good for is some kind of side thing. In his case, he wanted to have a 30-year TIPS ladder to guarantee income until he's 104. Now that is indeed a very limited purpose, because as Michael Kitsis tells us, the only people that can use tips ladders like that are people that are grossly oversaved to begin with. And if we listen to Bill Bernstein's recent interviews, he says he's got 30% of his assets in this tips ladder, and the other 70%, he doesn't intend on spending at all. He's going to die with that. It's invested for his heirs. A substitute for cash. Instead of holding cash or other nominal bonds, you can use tips and then you don't have to worry about inflation for that pot of money for that time period. But it's never going to outperform a well-diversified portfolio that is primarily stock-based. It's never going to give you a higher safe withdrawal rate. Okay, so where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with intelligent people who actually look at the data knowing the truth about tips, that you shouldn't be using them in those portfolios. But the rest of the world is going to continue on saying wrong things and giving bad advice about them.

Voices [26:02]

You're going to end up eating a steady diet of government cheese and living in a van down by the river.

Mostly Uncle Frank [26:11]

And trying to pretend that tips are some kind of whiz-bang alternative investment that's going to protect your portfolio from inflation, and it's just not. And I think the same phrase applies even more so when it comes to personal finance. That I expect personal finance will not get over this until a lot of these people are just dead.

Voices [26:45]

Dead is dead.

Mostly Uncle Frank [26:48]

Because a lot of really bad ideas linger for a really long period of time. One of them that came up in the slideshow that I'm going to link to was this crazy idea from the 1990s that you should structure your portfolio based on your age, like 100 minus your age, and that would help you determine what your stock bond mix should be. That was marketing advice come up with by somebody in the financial services industry. It never had any validity.

Voices [27:15]

Always be closing. Always be closing.

Mostly Uncle Frank [27:21]

And most people in finance today would look back at it and laugh. They would never structure a client portfolio based on some simplistic formula like that. It makes no sense. Because they have little minds. I'm not a smart man. Anyway, hope you enjoyed that frolic and detour and that blast from the past. When I didn't have so many emails, so I had to fill the time with something. OB.

Voices [28:34]

Yeah.

Withdrawal Rules And Retirement Levers

Mostly Uncle Frank [28:34]

Yeah, baby. But thank you for presenting that to us to allow us to have a little victory rant. And thank you for that email. Last enough, we have an email from Jeff.

Voices [29:35]

This guy's been stung since third grade.

Mostly Uncle Frank [29:38]

And Jeff Wright?

Mostly Queen Mary [29:39]

Hi, Frank. I have started investing in a risk parity portfolio that is closest to the golden ratio.

Voices [29:46]

The numbers so perfect, perfect. Defined everywhere.

Mostly Queen Mary [29:52]

I really don't understand how the withdrawals are inflation adjusted. For example, if your initial monthly withdrawal from a fund in 2020 was $50, shouldn't the current monthly rate be around $61 instead of just dividing the amount by a fixed number like $200? It seems like the way it is being adjusted is based on the portfolio value and not inflation. Is this the way portfolio analyzing tools you are using are calculating their safe withdrawal rates? I'm making my way through all the episodes, and I really appreciate all the work you've put into this to help an average investor like me. Best regards, Jeff G.

Voices [30:32]

Oh no!

Portfolio Check And Closing Notes

Mostly Uncle Frank [30:35]

Well, let's see if we can clear up your confusion, Jeff. First, I think you have the portfolios mixed up because we are not taking out 6% out of the golden ratio on the website. That's at a 5% annualized withdrawal rate. So on a monthly basis, you'd be dividing by 240 to get to that number. You may be looking at the withdrawal rules for the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio, which started at 6%, but then has an automatic guardrail when it goes below 80% of its value, that it drops the withdrawal rate to 5% and now it's back up at 6%. The first three portfolios, the all seasons, the golden butterfly and the golden ratio are just on this simplistic withdrawal schedule based on the current value of the portfolio. And so whenever the value of the portfolio goes up, we take out more money. And when the value of the portfolio goes down, we take out less money. In practical terms, we end up taking out more money with this method than we do if we were to follow the just add inflation and not make the amount go up when the portfolio value rises. And you can see that by running this in both ways over a testfolio, and I'll put some links in the show notes so you can see this. At testfolio, you can do things on a constant percentage basis, or you can do it on an inflated basis, or both. And so if you run that using the allocations for the golden ratio portfolio both ways, you'll see that we've actually taken out more money with this method than we would have if we just added inflation on an annual basis, like you might do if you're comparing portfolios and kind of a standard Bill Bangin methodology. So why did I choose to do it that way? Well, it's actually more realistic because in fact, nobody uses inflation to take their withdrawals in retirement. You would never do that because you have to match your withdrawals to your actual expenses. And so your actual expenses might be more or less than inflation, and you wouldn't be looking at the inflation CPI number and saying, oh, I can only spend that amount of money and not spend that amount of money or force yourself to spend more money than you had planned to spend and be stupid. So nobody actually does that. The only reason that that was ever used as a methodology was that Bangin had to pick something that was reasonable, and so it been built in for comparison purposes. It's a constant methodology that you can use to compare two portfolios, but nobody ever uses that as the basis for their actual withdrawals in retirement. In fact, the correct forecasting methodology, if you're going to use inflation, would be to use CPI minus 1 or CPI minus 2%, because that is, in fact, the way inflation is actually experienced by retirees in the United States, people over 50, that every single category of inflation is actually lower than the CPI, except for healthcare, but it balances out to CPI minus 1% or CPI minus 2%. This was actually one of the topics I talked about at the economy conference, and I linked to that presentation recently in the show notes. This is based on thousands and thousands of people over 50 and three studies, one from JP Morgan, one from T. Row Price, and one from the RAN Corporation. So it's pretty much in stone as to what the base rate assumption should be if you're actually using inflation to project something. So if you're using CPI to project your retirement expenses, you're essentially doing bad forecasting. Because you have to use base rates to do good forecasting, not things that somebody used before for some other reason. So what people also do is they tend to increase spending when they see they have more money and decrease it when they see they have less money in their portfolio. That's a very natural human reaction. And so for the purpose of this academic study, since we weren't matching these sample portfolios up with anything in particular, it was easier just to use that methodology because I knew it would come out very similar to the inflation-adjusted withdrawals anyway. And in fact, it's been more. So we've been withdrawing more aggressively than you would if you were just applying inflation to the portfolios. And this gets me to a more important observation about how to use tools. The best use of tools is not to use them to necessarily get out the number, because you're going to get out different withdrawal rates based on which tool you use and what kind of data sets you're looking at. The best use of tools is to compare portfolio A and portfolio B. Because the truth is nobody can ever know which portfolio is going to be the best one in the future. All we have is the past and things like the four quadrant model to tell us why one portfolio, why a more diversified portfolio has a higher safe withdrawal rate than one that's less diversified. That we have good theory and we have good data about. And the portfolio itself is only one of the levers you can pull to help you spend money in retirement. There are three other levers. The first one is related, it is the method of withdrawals that's what you're talking about. That's a separate from the portfolio method of increasing or decreasing your withdrawals. And if you look at the most recent Morningstar reports, state of retirement that they put out every November or December, they do a nice analysis of various variable withdrawal strategies, showing that if you are taking average inflation for a retiree CPI minus one or CPI minus two percent, that effectively raises your safe withdrawal rate by one half to one percent. If you do something more advanced, that is a variable withdrawal strategy, you might get up to one and a half percent more in terms of a safe withdrawal rate over a base strategy, whether you're just blindly taking out a withdrawal with CPI inflation attached to it. So that's the second method of getting money out of a portfolio. The third method is one we usually don't talk about, which is simply you have other side income. You have Social Security, you have a pension, you have a side job. That's another way of solving your retirement problem or having money in retirement to spend. So those are the three levers that you really want to use. The fourth lever, unfortunately, is the one that a lot of people do use, and it's just don't spend money. Reduce your withdrawal rate. And that always works if you make it low enough. In fact, if it's less than 3%, you can probably do whatever you want within a reason. That is, in fact, the strategy adopted by most of your popular gurus, and you should keep that in mind whenever you're reading somebody's suggestions as to how to structure a retirement portfolio. Is their real strategy don't spend much money? Because in most circumstances, such as Bill Bernstein, like we talked about, his real strategy is don't spend much money. It has nothing to do with a tips ladder or any portfolio construction. Because if you pull that lever down low enough, keep your spending low enough, you really don't need to worry about the other three levers that you can pull. But if you want to spend more money and leave that lever up, then you do need to pull on the other three levers, your portfolio, your withdrawal strategy, and any additional income from other sources. And to me, that's the more interesting questions, because not spending money and adopting some oddball strategy involving tips ladders or buckets, ladders, flower pots, pie cakes, minimum dignity floors, all of those are don't spend money strategies. And frankly, that's not very interesting or useful for most people unless you're part of the hoarder culture. I'll give you another example. I know somebody in the financial independence community who has 10 years of cash just sitting there to make them feel good. And he's decided to put that in a tips ladder or tips funds, I can't remember which. And when he turns 70, he will decide whether or not he wants to convert that into a single premium immediate annuity. Now all that's fine and good and interesting, but his real strategy is just don't spend much money. And the rest of it is window dressing. But now I sound like I'm ranting again. Anyway, I'm glad you're here. I hope you get a lot out of the website and out of the podcast. Please do write in with more questions as you proceed. I'll see if you can link to that Morningstar study, the last one. Because you if you've never read about various variable withdrawal strategies, you really need to start thinking about that as well, because it's another lever you can pull besides the portfolio lever. Anyway, hopefully that all helps. And thank you for your email. Now we are going to do something extremely fun. And the extremely fun thing we get to do now is our weekly portfolio reviews. Of the eight sample portfolios, you can find at www.riskperior.com on the portfolios page. And April looks like it's recovery mode. Just taking a look at the markets themselves. The SP 500, represented by the fund VOO, is now down 0.08% for the year so far. So almost flat now. The Nasdaq represented by the fund QQQ, the NASDAQ 100, is down 0.40% for the year so far. And believe it or not, those are our worst performers of the year. Everything else is into the positive. Starting with small cap value represented by the fund VIOV is now up 8.39% for the year so far. And if you have AVUV, it's doing even better than that. Gold continues to shine. Representative fund GLDM is up 10.35% for the year so far.

Voices [41:27]

I love gold.

Mostly Uncle Frank [41:30]

Long-term treasury bonds represented by the fund VGLT are up 0.15% for the year. Reaths represented by the fund RET are up 6.45%. Commodities represented by the fund PDBC are still leading the way by far. That is up 28.08% for the year so far on the price of oil and natural gas. Preferred shares represented by the fund PFFV are up 1.3% for the year so far. And managed futures are managing to be up and one of the best performers. Representative fund DBMF is up 8.51% for the year so far. So it's an interesting year where the mainline things are struggling, but the alternatives are doing quite well, which leads us to decent performances for all of these risk parity style portfolios, at least all the ones that have alternatives in them, which is seven out of the eight. So moving to these portfolios, first one's the all seasons. This is a reference portfolio. It's only 30% in stocks, 55% in intermediate and long-term treasury bonds, and the remaining 15% in golden commodities. It's up 1.37% for the month of April so far. It's up 3.02% year to date, and up 27.00% since inception in July 2020. Moving to these more bread and butter kind of portfolios, first one's golden butterfly. This one is 40% in stocks divided into a total stock market fund and a small cap value fund. 40% in treasuries divided into the long and short, and the remaining 20% in gold. It's up 2.05% for the month of April. It's up 4.2% for the year so far, and up 66.25% since inception in July 2020. Next one's Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio. What's the answer? What's the answer?

Voices [43:21]

What's the answer, Mr. Sacred Geometry, Sacred Geometry, Sacred Geometry? The Golden Ratio.

Mostly Uncle Frank [43:28]

The Golden Ratio. This one is 42% in stocks, divided into a large cap growth fund, which is the worst performer this year, and the small cap value fund. 26% in long term treasury bonds, 16% in gold, 10% in managed futures, and 6% in cash in a money market fund. It's up 2.33% for the month of April, it's up 3.54% year to date, and up 59.82% since inception of July 20. 2020. Next one's a risk parity ultimate. Not gonna go through all 12 of these funds. It's kind of the kitchen sink here. It's up 2.64% for the month of April. It's up 3.13% year to date. And up 44.11% since inception in July 2020. Now moving to these experimental portfolios. These all involve leveraged funds. So don't try this at home. Even though I know some of you do.

Voices [44:27]

Well, you have a gambling problem!

Mostly Uncle Frank [44:31]

First one's the accelerated permanent portfolio. This one is 27.5% in a levered bond fund TMF, 25% in a leverage stock fund UPRO, 25% in PFFE, a preferred shares fund, and 22.5% in gold, GilDM. It's up 3.92% for the month of April. It's up 1.28% year to date, and up 25.01% since inception in July 2020. Next one's the Aggressive 5050. This is the most levered and least diversified of these portfolios. And the only one that's down for the year so far, not surprisingly. It's one-third in UPRO, a leverage stock fund, one-third in TMF, a levered bond fund, and remaining third in ballast in a preferred shares fund and an intermediate treasury bond fund. So basically half stocks and half bonds. It's up 4.45% for the month of April. It's down 2.2% year to date and down 3.87% since inception in July 2020. Next one's a levered golden ratio. This one's a year younger than the first six. It is 35% in NTSX, that's a composite levered fund, that's the SP 500 and Treasury Bonds, levered up 1.5 to 1. 15% in AVDV, that's an international small cap value fund. 20% in gold, GLDM, 10% in KMLM, that's a managed futures fund, 10% in TMF, the Levered Bond Fund, and the remaining 10% in two levered funds, UDOW that follows the Dow, and UTSL that follows a utilities index. It is up 3.59% for the month of April. It's up 5.8% year to date. Actually, the best performer of all the portfolios year to date. And up 26.83% since inception in July 2020. And moving to our last and newest one, the OPTRA portfolio. One portfolio to rule them all. This is a return stacked style portfolio, if you're familiar with that from Resolve Asset Management. It has 16% in UPRO, that's the levered SP 500 fund. 24% in AVGV, which is a worldwide value-tilted fund from Avantis, 24% in GovZ, that's a Treasury Strips Fund, and the remaining 36% divided into Gold and Managed Futures. It's up 3.8% for the month of April. It's up 5.59% year-to-date and up 36.23% since inception in July 2024. So we can see that aside from the war, it's a pretty good year for these risk parity style portfolios. And not such a good year if you only have stocks and bonds in your portfolio. And never mind tips. But such is the way of the world.

Voices [47:16]

And it's God!

Mostly Uncle Frank [47:20]

But now I see our signal is beginning to fade on episode 500. What a long, strange trip it's been. If you have comments or questions for me, please send them to Frank at RiskPartyRader.com, and email us frank at riskpartyrador.com. Or you can go to the website www.riskpartyrador.com. Put your message into the contact form and I'll get it that way. You haven't had a chance to do it, please go to your favorite podcast provider and like, subscribe, give me some stars, a follow, a review. That would be great. Okay. And check out that little slideshow and video that I'm gonna put in the show notes for your entertainment.

Voices [48:02]

Now go home and get your shine box.

Mostly Uncle Frank [48:05]

Thank you once again for tuning in. This is Frank Vasquez with Risk Party Radio. Signing off.